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Hello again

As mentioned one of our legs of business is as a WISP.  I recognize that 5G will be rolling out soon and rather widespread in 5 years.  However, some of the spaces we cover are still only covered by 3G service or below.

How do you see 5G pushing out to more rural areas or the overall build out.  I expect it to be Large urban first and working its way down with little focus on lower density residential areas.

Have you looked into white space communication and how do you see that changing the way we communicate?

With these newer wireless technologies and now released lower latency for 5G is it likely that some fiber necessity may be rendered obsolete in the next 8-10 years?

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Did you mean the users do need or don’t need more than 3G ? I mean 3G caps out at 21.6 Mbps. I don’t know of any DSL that goes that fast, at least no where near my operating area.

To be honest, I don’t know much about the US spectrum auctions and how it’s all divided up down there. I do know that those auctions are kind of garbage because of the way the spectrum is divided up and the non-regionality of its use. It pretty much excludes anyone that doesn’t have the deepest pockets, meaning it’s nearly impossible for a new provider to get into the game.

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My first job in the tech industry was working for a regional cellular carrier. Obviously networks have changed since then (my time was in the CDMA2000 days), but the principles are the same.

Yes, I would say that your presumption is correct that 5G will be deployed in urban areas first and rural areas last. This has to do with economies of scale. As a business, you deploy your revenue-generating capital investments where they will be most utilized first. That being said, the roll out to rural areas will HEAVILY depend one ONE SINGLE factor: the handset manufacturers. When the handset manufacturers stop including 3G compatible radios in their devices, that will be the end of 3G. Simple as that. Let’s be honest – in a rural town on grassy farmland with a population of 2,500 people (think the cliche movie scene of a tumbleweed bouncing down the unpaved Main Street), do you NEED anything more than 3G ? Keep in mind that maximum speeds are more determined by usage load than technology limitations. You could have a 4G cellular site reduced to the crawl of dial-up-modem-speeds because there are too many users using it at the same time. The average person really doesn’t need an upgrade from 24 Mbps to 48 Mbps on their cellular device. It’s more to increase overall capacity because the cellular user base is continuously increasing.

Yes, fiber optic will become obsolete, at least to the end user. The backbones of providers will still require it, especially over long distances (and undersea). But when it comes to bringing fiber optic to everyone’s home, right to their doorstep ? Yes, that will become a thing of the past. The cost to bringing a physical cable is just much higher than it is to deliver the same service wirelessly. Therefore, IMO, the majority of R&D money is going to go towards wireless solutions. Will end-user fiber become obsolete within 8 to 10 years ? That I don’t know. Could be sooner, to be honest. Here’s a link to check out for you: https://www.extremetech.com/electronics/168566-worlds-fastest-wireless-network-hits-100-gigabits-per-second-can-scale-to-terabits
These guys hit 100 Gbps on a wireless network. Obviously that’s a lab environment, but still, it does show that the technology is rapidly growing.

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Great data thanks.

Yes in many of those communities the users would NEED more than 3G, looking at 2500 in a town / village is even a bit much for some of the areas we have been.  Almost a year ago today we deployed a system in northern Indiana that brought people from not even being able to get DSL to full streaming HD, netflix etc.  Hopefully at least a few to Eli.

What would be interesting is to see how some of the 600Mhz that was just auctioned changes things.  I see a lot more penetration ability there that would help rural areas with dense trees.   T Mobile took a ton of that and if they are able to push 100MB+ 5G through to rural areas it could be a big game changer.  That is why I was originally saying 10 year or so mark by the time it reaches areas with only a few houses per 100 sq miles.

This will be interesting indeed.

What are your takes on the 600Mhz action?

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The 3G speeds that the users experience are typically sub 1Mbps.  Back when 3G was the newer better thing it seemed a lot fast but what they are actually getting now is rather minimal. Worse part about it is we cannot stream Eli while driving through these areas.

 

Yes the spectrum auctions go up a lot.  I looked through the general prices and looks like I will have to sell a house or get a loan etc and try to come up with 100k ish to get into it at the lower level.  However, my experience with unlicensed has been decent.